Archive For: February 2016

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Chicago, Brazil and Maybe No ‘V’?

The Chicago Business Barometer fell sharply again in February, almost exactly as it had risen sharply in January. In fact, for the past year that has been the dominant pattern of sharp alternating swings between “growth” and “contraction.” Despite that, months showing up below 50 (this is still a PMI) are still somehow “unexpected”: Chicago-area...

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The G-20s Big Fat Zero------Now Comes The Bubble's Demise!

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Chesapeake's AIG Moment: Energy Giant Faces $1 Billion In Collateral Calls

Back on February 10, when looking at Carl Icahn's darling Chesapeake, whose stock had plunged to effectively record lows on imminent bankruptcy concerns, we said that for anyone brave enough to take the plunge, the "Trade of the Year" would be to go long a specific bond, the $500 million in 3.25s of March 2016 which were maturing in just over a month, and which on February 10 were yielding 300% at a price of 80.5 cents on the dollar.

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The Global Run On Physical Cash Has Begun: Why It Pays To Panic First

Back in August 2012, when negative interest rates were still merely viewed as sheer monetary lunacy instead of pervasive global monetary reality that has pushed over $6 trillion in global bonds into negative yield territory, the NY Fed mused hypothetically about negative rates and wrote "Be Careful What You Wish For" saying that "if rates go negative, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing will likely be called upon to print a lot more currency as individuals and small businesses substitute cash for at least some of their bank balances."

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Iran Pivots Toward Democracy As Moderates Sweep Elections

In what amounts to a referendum on President Hassan Rouhani’s leadership, voters in Tehran turned out overwhelmingly for moderates in closely watched parliamentary elections that may serve as an important signal for where Iran is headed.

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The Second Tech Bubble Has Burst, And Here Come The Mass Layoffs

Over the past year we have diligently followed the bursting of the second tech bubble which in the space of less than one year went from the "running of the bulls" to the "mauling of the unicorns", mostly in the private markets but also - for those rare few who have made it beyond the IPO stage - in the public arena.

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World Trade Falls 13.8% In Dollar Volume

Weaker demand from emerging markets made 2015 the worst year for world trade since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, highlighting rising fears about the health of the global economy.

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Mind The Non-GAAP----Actual S&P Earnings Lowest Since 2010

We have previously documented how, with the fourth quarter earnings season almost completed, Q4 EPS are poised to drop by 3.3% Y/Y, making this the third consecutive quarter of declining year over year earnings, in other words an earnings recession and a half.

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Warren Buffett's 2% Growth Fallacy------Future Prosperity Is An Illusion

Warren Buffett, in his latest annual letter to shareholders, took aim at the idea that 2% real economic growth wasn’t sufficient to create economic prosperity for future generations was wrong....

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Yeats’ Widening Gyre Is Upon Us--------Both Parties Going Full Whig

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Hillary’s dumb riposte to Trump’s dumb slogan — make America great again! — was “…America never stopped being great.” I guess she’s been traveling around the strip-mall wastelands of Carolina …

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