April Flashback or Why Economists Are Clueless: 75% Expected June Hike

Given the massive swing in rate hike sentiment following the disastrous jobs report on June third, inquiring minds may be interested in how economists saw things about a month ago.

On May 12, the Wall Street Journal took a survey of economists on the question When Will the Fed Act?

About 31% of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month said the Fed will raise short-term interest rates at its June 14-15 meeting, while another 31% expected it to wait until September. Another 21% thought the Fed will next move at its July meeting. For the first time since February, June wasn’t the economists’ consensus pick for the next Fed rate increase.

In April, three quarters of respondents predicted the Fed would raise rates in June.

Fed Act

Those March and April surveys are downright amusing. In March, over 85% of economists expected a hike by June. No one thought the next move would be a cut.

In April, over 80% of economists thought there would be a hike by July.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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