Historical Archives

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The JOLTS Phantom: Hires or Job Openings?

In all honesty, I could start almost any piece I write with the phrase “economists are stumped.” It has become something of a baseline where there is some element or condition of the global economy that doesn’t make sense to them. The latest update in JOLTS for July continues to be faithful to the seeming...

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Hanjin Marooning in San Pedro Bay

Expansions and contractions in global trade have played out over long secular trends for thousands of years.  The Silk Road, for example, was established by the Han Dynasty of China in 130 BC, and allowed for continuous trade between east … Continue reading

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Janet-----You're Gonna Have Some 'Splainin To Do!

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JPM's Head Quant Warns Volatility Is About To Surge-----Here's Why

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Why The Fed Is Trapped

“3 Things” is a weekly post of thoughts I am pondering, usually contrarian, with respect to the markets, economy or portfolio management. Comments and thoughts are always welcome via email,  Twitter, and/or Facebook....

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The One Trillion Dollar Consumer Auto Loan Bubble Is Beginning To Burst

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Curious Pattern in ISM Readings---But Still Getting Weaker

  Head Fake Theory Confirmed? This is a brief update on our last overview of economic data. Although we briefly discussed employment as well, the overview was as usual mainly focused on manufacturing, which is the largest sector of the economy by gross output.   Pepsi factory in Baltimore, 1956 Photo via pinterest.com   Readers […]

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July Factory Orders Didn't Rebound Strongly----More Misleading Spin

Factory orders rose in July in seasonally-adjusted terms from a downward revised June level. As has been the case with a number of economic data points this summer, that was a drastically different result than the unadjusted comparison. Since only the narrowest monthly interpretation makes it into most commentary about the economy, let alone manufacturing,...

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The Daily Data Dive: Bubbly Metros Show Heightened Housing Risks

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More Indications of Labor Slowing----Yellen's Favorite Index Hits The Skids

The Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) fell to contraction again in August. After rebounding in July for the first positive reading of 2016, the LMCI dropped to -0.7 in the latest update. As usual, revisions have reshaped the levels of indicated problems throughout the past two years, but overall the trend remains. From...

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