Those who got Donald Trump totally wrong in the nomination process, still have not figured out why.
Thus, it’s no surprise they are still wrong now.
I propose, that instead of being the demise of the Republican party, Donald Trump will be its savior.
Still Not Getting It
Let’s kick the discussion off with Nate Silver’s analysis Why Republican Voters Decided On Trump.
Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination. If you’d told me a year ago that Trump would be the nominee, I’d have thought you were nuts.
For a candidate like Trump to win the nomination, it means that several things have gone wrong — both for the Republican Party and in the assumptions we made about how party nominations work. The other day, I summed up the three most important such factors as follows:
What happened after Wisconsin? My theory as of a couple weeks ago — and having not gotten so many other things about the Republican race right, I’m sticking to it — is that Republican voters were swayed by Trump’s arguments that the candidate with the most votes and delegates should be the nominee.
Sticking With Dead Wrong
Simply put, Silver is sticking with analysis that has been dead wrong. But here’s the clincher.
Silver says “Usually a party picks a nominee who is both reasonably ‘electable’ and who upholds its traditional policy positions.”
The second half of that sentence actually makes sense. The first shows Silver’s blatant bias.
The entire step of the way, Silver concluded Trump is not “reasonably electable”.
What Went Wrong?
Actually, nothing went wrong except Silver’s analysis. Silver ignored a massive (and obvious) attitude change.
I wrote about that many times.
- December 10: Attitudes, Attitudes: Dear Nate Silver, Regarding Donald Trump, You Are Missing Something Big!
- January 31: Nate Silver’s Continual Underestimation of Donald Trump’s Chances
- February 24: Reality Sets In: It’s Trump vs. Clinton
There’s no need to go into Nate Silver’s numerous other errors in detail. That is not the point of this blog.
My point is Silver still doesn’t get it. It’s not just Silver. Analysis left and right concludes Trump will get walloped in November.
Crisis Oh My!
Josh Barro, writing for Business Insider proclaims Crisis in the Republican Party is Even Worse than it Looks.
After the Republicans lose, there will be no hugging and no learning. And that means the 2020 nominating campaign could be another circular firing squad similar to the one we are witnessing now. You had better stock up on popcorn.
Nominee from Hell
Salon writer Heather Digby Parton says Donald Trump Is the Nominee From Hell: The Early Numbers Are in, and They Spell Disaster for the GOP.
The article is so ridiculous I won’t even excerpt it.
A couple days ago The Hill posted an article from a Republican strategist who just lowered the Republican chances in November because Trump won the nomination. The strategist downgraded Republican chances in Florida, Michigan, and other states. ‘
Apologies offered because I can no longer find the link.
Analysts, left and right, still don’t get it.
On the Right, it is absurd to believe Cruz would do better than Trump. On the Left, analysts ignore the shocking weakness of Hillary who was supposed to roll over Bernie Sanders without a fight.
Everyone cites Trump’s ridiculous statements on women, abortion and other things. Yep, they were shockingly poor.
However, everyone knows about them. They were ignored. So why are they supposed to matter in November?
In contrast, have we heard everything there is to know about Hillary’s emails? About Clinton Foundation donations? About Hillary’s misguided policies in Libya?
Trump the Savior
Unlike Ted Cruz, Trump has a very good shot of picking up crossover Democratic votes.
As I stated last year, there are a lot of angry white voters who blame China, Vietnam, and India for stealing US Jobs.
I strongly disagree with Trump’s protectionist policies. But my vote is meaningless.
Trump has a strong chance of winning Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, and Michigan.
Ted Cruz cannot say the same thing.
Trump can also pick up Libertarians tired or war.
Millennials? They liked Bernie Sanders and many of them will sit this out.
Trump has “Make America Great Again”
What does Hillary have? “I am strong, I am invincible, I am woman. Let’s bomb Libya”.
It matters not whether Trump can live up to the message. What matters now is whether or not people like the message.
This is about attitudes.
In retrospect, Donald Trump is the “candidate from hell”.
- He will beat Clinton: Her Hell.
- He is the undoing of the neocon warmongers (of which Hillary is one): Their Hell.
In doing so, Trump will save the Republican party from itself. Even if Trump, loses, purging the party of the neocons and the evangelicals is a good thing.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock