Memo To Fed: Read Your Own Consumer Expectations Survey----All Arrows Are Pointing Down

Fed Survey of Households

Every month the New York Fed interviews a rolling group of 1200 people to produce a detailed Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Interested parties can download the Survey Questionnaire PDF.

The Fed states:

Where existing surveys look at consumer sentiment and the decisions households make, their coverage of household expectations is limited; the Survey of Consumer Expectations seeks to collect information on a wide variety of consumer expectations – including inflation, future earnings, household income, house prices, access to credit, layoff risk and reemployment prospects, and US economic conditions overall. Through a set of quarterly special surveys it also aims to focus in depth on special topics such as household finances as well as labor and housing market issues and outcomes.

NY Fed - One Year Look Ahead Spending Survey Projections

click on chart for sharper image

Projections

  • High-end spending projections have been slowly drifting lower for quite some time, but the decline became more noticeable about a year ago.
  • Median spending projections took a sustained turn for the worse in December of 2014.
  • Low-end spending projections to a sustained dive starting November of 2014.

Given the Fed places so much faith in various consumer confidence numbers, I have a simple question: Why don't they believe their own survey?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

David Stockman's Contra Corner is the only place where mainstream delusions and cant about the Warfare State, the Bailout State, Bubble Finance and Beltway Banditry are ripped, refuted and rebuked. Subscribe now to receive David Stockman’s latest posts by email each day as well as his model portfolio, Lee Adler’s Daily Data Dive and David’s personally curated insights and analysis from leading contrarian thinkers.

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