October 6: Daily Contrarian Reads

The Pricing Of Risk Is Kaput

US Treasury Securities with longer maturities fell this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 2.37% early on and currently trading at 2.34%. This is still low by historical standards, and it’s still in denial of the Fed’s monetary tightening: Four rate hikes since it started this cycle, and the QE unwind has commenced as of today. But it cannot hold a candle to the Draghi-engineered negative-yield absurdity still unfolding in the Eurozone.....The average yield of junk bonds denominated in euros hit a new all-time record low at the close on Friday of 2.30%.

Art Cashin: "I've Never Seen Anything Like Today's Market Before"

Market veteran Art Cashin, the head of NYSE floor operations for UBS, made an interesting observation earlier today just minutes before the close, as US stocks headed for another record finish after shrugging off the worst mass shooting in US history. Asked by CNBC’s Kelly Evans to explain how US stocks have continued to outperform while the 10-year Treasury yield has remained anchored below 2.5%,  Cashin acknowledged that, during a career that's spanned more than six decades, he's never seen anything like today's market.  “I’ve been doing this for over 50 years and I’ve never seen anything like it so it is rather odd.”

Here Comes The Next Flood: Trump to Seek $29 Billion in Disaster Funding

The Trump administration will ask Congress to provide $29 billion in disaster aid and national flood insurance for hurricane-recovery efforts, a Republican lawmaker said Tuesday. Of that amount, $16 billion would be used for loan forgiveness under the National Flood Insurance Program and a little more than $12 billion would go for federal disaster relief operations, said the lawmaker, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The funding is in response to Hurricane Maria, which hit Puerto Rico, as well as Harvey and Irma, which struck the Gulf Coast.

Smelling a Rat in Our Global Credit Bubble

Twenty years ago Doug Noland was so worried about imbalances surrounding the dot.com boom that he began to title his weekly reports “The Credit Bubble Bulletin. Years later, he warned the world about the impending 2008 crisis. However a coming implosion, he says, could be the biggest yet. “We are in a global finance bubble, which I call the grand-daddy of all bubbles,” said Noland. “Economists can’t see it. They can’t model money and credit. However, to those outside the system, the facts are increasingly clear.”

26 Recession-Free Years Hide a Darker Picture for Australia

The global crown for the longest stretch of uninterrupted economic growth is within sight for Australia. But it’s limping to the line as policy paralysis weighs on the nation’s prospects. Twenty-six years without recession have put Australia within two years of overtaking the Netherlands’ record growth streak and government, central bank and economist forecasts all suggest it’ll take the mantle.

What If The Tax Donkeys Rebel?

Since federal income taxes are in the spotlight, let's ask a question that rarely (if ever) makes it into the public discussion: what if the tax donkeys who pay most of the tax rebel? There are several likely reasons why this question rarely arises.

1. Most commentators may not realize that the vast majority of income taxes are paid by the top 10%--and that roughly 60% are paid by the top 4% of households. (A nice example of the Pareto Distribution, i.e. the 80/20 rule, which can be extended to the 64/4 rule.)

The MSM’s Irrational Anti-Russia Bias

The anti-Russian/anti-Soviet bias in the American media appears to have no limit. You would think that they would have enough self-awareness and enough journalistic integrity -– just enough -– to be concerned about their image. But it keeps on coming, piled higher and deeper......ases in point is a review of a new biography of Mikhail Gorbachev in the New York Times Book Review (September 10). The review says that Gorbachev “was no hero to his own people” because he was “the destroyer of their empire.”

The Death Spiral Appears Unstoppable

The empire will limp along, steadily losing influence until the dollar is dropped as the world’s reserve currency, plunging the United States into a crippling depression and instantly forcing a massive contraction of its military machine. Short of a sudden and widespread popular revolt, which does not seem likely, the death spiral appears unstoppable, meaning the United States as we know it will no longer exist within a decade or, at most, two. The global vacuum we leave behind will be filled by China, already establishing itself as an economic and military juggernaut, or perhaps there will be a multipolar world carved up among Russia, China, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and a few other states. Or maybe the void will be filled, as the historian Alfred W. McCoy writes in his book “In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of US Global Power,” by “a coalition of transnational corporations, multilateral military forces like NATO, and an international financial leadership self-selected at Davos and Bilderberg” that will “forge a supranational nexus to supersede any nation or empire.”

Mass Shootings: The Military-Entertainment Complex's Culture Of Violence

Perhaps there’s no single one factor to blame for this gun violence. However, there is a common denominator, and that is a war-drenched, violence-imbued, profit-driven military industrial complex that has invaded almost every aspect of our lives. Ask yourself: Who are these shooters modelling themselves after? Where are they finding the inspiration for their weaponry and tactics? Whose stance and techniques are they mirroring?.......We have been a nation at war for most of our existence. We are a nation that makes a living from killing through defense contracts, weapons manufacturing and endless wars.

The Dead Hand Of Franco's Fascism---What's At Stake In Spain

Fascist Franco may have been dead for more than four decades, but Spain is still encumbered with his dictatorial corpse. A new paradigm has been coined right inside the lofty European Union, self-described home/patronizing dispenser of human rights to lesser regions across the planet: “In the name of democracy, refrain from voting, or else.” Call it democracy nano-Franco style.

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