China’s stocks tumbled to the lowest levels in 13 months amid concern capital outflows will accelerate as the economy slows and support for the yuan eats into the nation’s foreign reserves.
The Shanghai Composite Index plunged 6.4 percent to 2,749.79 at the close. All industry groups slumped, ranging from commodity shares to new-economy sectors such as technology. Besides data showing outflows hitting an estimated $1 trillion last year, investors were concerned about a possible liquidity squeeze even as the central bank flooded the financial system with cash before the upcoming Chinese new year holiday. Some of the nation’s most accurate forecasters said the stock index may not bottom until it falls to the 2,500 level.
“It’s an issue about confidence and there’s no confidence in the market now,” said Wu Kan, a fund manager at JK Life Insurance Co. in Shanghai. “The depreciating yuan and slowing economic growth have been haunting the market for a while. We are less than two weeks from the spring festival and it seems that most investors are in no mood to trade any more.”
“Capital outflows and demand for cash before Lunar New Year may weigh on the stock market in spite of the recent massive fund injection from the PBOC,” said Huang Cendong, a Shanghai-based analyst at Sinolink Securities Co.
The CSI 300 Index fell 6 percent, led by industrial, energy and technology shares. XCMG Construction Machinery Co., China’s biggest crane maker, and Shenzhen O-film Tech Co. plunged by the 10 percent daily limit. PetroChina Co., the largest energy company, dropped 4.7 percent.
Thomas Schroeder, the managing director of Chart Partners Group Ltd. who predicted in October that a rebound in Chinese stocks wouldn’t last, says the benchmark index will drop to 2,400. Huang Weimin, whose Chinese stock-index futures wagers returned more than 6,200 percent last year, advised investors to sell shares as the stock market could drop another 15 percent in the first half as slowing growth and a weaker yuan fuel capital outflows.
China has been burning through reserves to reduce yuan volatility as the currency lost its status as a one-way bet on appreciation amid an unexpected devaluation in August. The stockpile of reserves plunged $513 billion last year to $3.33 trillion, the first annual drop since 1992. Foreign exchange reserves are seen tumbling $300 billion this year to the $3 trillion level, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased 3.4 percent. The Hang Seng Index lost 2.5 percent, dragged down by financial and oil shares. The gauge has slumped 14 percent this year as the city’s dollar peg came under pressure and short-term interest rates spiked.