Weekend Reading: Been Back-And-Forth Before------In 2000 And 2008

AAA-Should-I-Stay-Or-Go

It has been interesting as of late reading the numerous views espousing the value of “indexing” and lamenting the short-term underperformance of some fund manager. What is more interesting is a large majority of these individuals have only been involved in the markets post-financial crisis. In other words, many of these individuals have never lived through a 2000 or 2008 type financial market event.

It is only during these periods where true investment “metal” is tested as the battlefield becomes a vast wasteland of bodies and failed ideas. Despite strategies that promote the value of long-term investing and the benefits of indexing, it is the realization of “loss” that derails even the most well-intentioned of individuals.

“Everyone’s got a plan, until they get punched in the face.” – Mike Tyson

But that is a realization that only occurs “after the fact.” Like the prey being hypnotized into immobility by the gaze of the snake as it slowly tightens its coils, investors are lulled into sense of complacency by a market, and the ongoing commentary, that seemingly “can’t go down.” 

Maybe, I have just been around too long. Over the past 25-years, I have seen just about everything that happens to investors fiscally and psychologically and the market environment that drove those outcomes. The current market environment of back-and-forth action is not unlike that seen just prior to the major market corrections in 2000 and 2008. As shown in the chart below, there are too many similarities to simply be coincidence.

SP500-MarketUpdate-050316-3

Could this time be different? Sure. Is it likely? Probably not.

The only question in my mind is “timing.” Which brings me to “The Clash” and the reading list for this weekend.

Should I stay or should I go?


CENTRAL BANKING


THE MARKET & ECONOMY


MUST READS


“Bull markets bail you out of your mistakes. Bear markets make you pay for them.” – Dick Russell

Questions, comments, suggestions – please email me.

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Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts is a Chief Portfolio Strategist/Economist for Clarity Financial. He is also the host of “The Lance Roberts Show” and Chief Editor of the “Real Investment Advice” website and author of “Real Investment Daily” blog and “Real Investment Report”. Follow Lance on Facebook, Twitter, and Linked-In

David Stockman's Contra Corner is the only place where mainstream delusions and cant about the Warfare State, the Bailout State, Bubble Finance and Beltway Banditry are ripped, refuted and rebuked. Subscribe now to receive David Stockman’s latest posts by email each day as well as his model portfolio, Lee Adler’s Daily Data Dive and David’s personally curated insights and analysis from leading contrarian thinkers.

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