Quite a week.
Last week, the markets rallied in anticipation Britain would “Remain” in the European Union which reversed the sell-off from the previous week. Despite a variety of polls and betting sites showing rising odds of Britain remaining in the EU, the “inconceivable” occurred last Thursday proving everyone wrong.
But this week, the markets proved everyone “wrong” again. I suggested on Tuesday that Central Banks would come to the rescue once again, that happened yesterday as both the BOE and ECB made announcements hinting at more QE this summer. To wit:
- BOE: SOME MONETARY POLICY EASING LIKELY OVER SUMMER
- BOE: MPC WILL DISCUSS FURTHER POLICY INSTRUMENTS IN AUG
- ECB: TO WEIGH LOOSER QE RULES AS BREXIT DEPLETES ASSET POOL
- ECB: OPTIONS TO INCLUDE MOVING AWAY FROM QE CAPITAL KEY
- ECB: CONCERNED ABOUT SHRINKING POOL OF ELIGIBLE DEBT
For those predicting financial market chaos and mayhem, Central Banks has successfully juiced asset prices erasing the majority of the previous losses.
“There are times in portfolio management where ‘doing nothing’ is better than ‘doing something.’ This is one of those times.”
Any action taken over the last two weeks has likely turned out to be wrong. The problem for investors remains that markets have made “no progress” over the last 13-months. While volatility has increased, returns on assets remain muted which continues to frustrates individuals.
Fundamentally and economically there is little cheer about and on a longer-term basis, as shown below, the markets remain in what appears to be a broadening market topping process.
The question remains whether Central Banks can continue to keep asset prices aloft while the economy and markets go through a recessionary cycle? Historically, that has never been the case. But then again, we have never had the level of Central Bank interventions currently being witnessed today.
Here is your reading list for the weekend.
“It’s the height of your responsibility to not allow the EU to disintegrate without utilizing all its resources. Throughout history governments have issued bonds in response to national emergencies, When should the AAA credit of the EU be put to use if not at the moment when the European Union is in mortal danger” – George Soros
BREXIT – BRELIEF
- Soros: Brexit Has Unleashed Next Crisis by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge
- The Italian Job by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong
- Frightening US Parallels To Brexit by Liz Peek via Fiscal Times
- Bravo, Brexit! by David Stockman via Contra Corner
- Uncertainty Is New Normal by Conor Sen via Bloomberg
- 7 Things To Make You Feel Better by Paul Lim via Time/Money
- Brexit, A Rejection Of Globalism by Larry Elliott via The Guardian
- Brexit Fallout Not A Lehman Moment by Ben Marlow via The Telegraph
- Brexit REALLY IS A Big Deal by Rana Foroohar via Time
- Brexit Impact & Road Ahead by Mike Amey via Pimco
- How Smart Money Got Brexit Vote Wrong by Daniel Gross via S+B Blog
- Reaction To Brexit Is Why It Happened by Matt Taibbi via Rolling Stone
- Brexit: Giant Hoax Or Calm Before The Storm by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard via The Telegraph
- Brelief Rally! More About Yields Than Britain by Randall Forsyth via Barron’s
- Euro Is Most Serious Threat To EU by Timothy Lee via EconLog
- The Real Lesson From Brexit by Luigi Zingales via ProMarket
OTHER THINGS I’M READING
- Oil Still Headed To $10/Barrel by A Gary Shilling via Bloomberg
- Risk Profiles Have Changed by Macro Man
- TINA is BS by Doug Kass via Real Clear Markets
- 10-Point Guide For A Confusing Period by Julia LaRoche via Yahoo
- Forgotten or Irrelevant Fundamentals by Jennifer Thomson via GaveKal
- More Important Stuff Than Brexit by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners
- 10M Americans About To Lose Pensions by Howard Penney via Hedgeye
- Fed Is In Epic Battle With Itself by Conor Sen via Bloomberg
- Why Public Ignores Economists by Mark Thoma via Fiscal Times
- Calculate The Odds Of Portfolio Disaster by William Baldwin via Forbes
- Warning In Interest Rate Fallacy by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners
- Is The Market In A Bubble Again by Paul La Monica via CNN Money
- Why You Shouldn’t Chase Rally by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
- 5-Keys To Trading by Shawn Langlois via Marketwatch
- Bubble In Search Of A Pin by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
- Fed Wrong About Natural Rates by Joseph Salerno via Mises
- Price/Sales Ratio: Another Nail In The Coffin by Michael Lebowitz via RIA
- The Hindenberg Moment by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
- Talking Macro Risks W/ Investors Podcasts by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
“There is nothing riskier than the widespread perception that there is no risk.” – Howard Marks
Questions, comments, suggestions – please email me.
Lance Roberts is a Chief Portfolio Strategist/Economist for Clarity Financial. He is also the host of “The Lance Roberts Show” and Chief Editor of the “Real Investment Advice” website and author of “Real Investment Daily” blog and “Real Investment Report”. Follow Lance on Facebook, Twitter, and Linked-In