Why The Gold Rally Is Just Getting Started

By Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge

It was just last week when legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller delivered his latest anti-Fed sermon and once again extolled gold as the asset class to own in these experimental times in which the "bull market in stocks is exhausted", saying "what was the one asset you did not want to own when I started Duquesne in 1981? Hint…it has traded for 5000 years and for the first time has a positive carry in many parts of the globe as bankers are now experimenting with the absurd notion of negative interest rates. Some regard it as a metal, we regard it as a currency and it remains our largest currency allocation."

Today, it is the turn of that other prominent anti-Fed crusading hedge fund billionaire, Elliott Management's Paul Singer, who in his latest letter said that gold’s best quarter in 30 years is probably just the beginning of a rebound as global investors weigh the ramifications of unprecedented monetary easing on inflation.

As cited by Bloomberg, Singer said that "it makes a great deal of sense to own gold. Other investors may be finally starting to agree,” Singer wrote in an April 28 letter to clients. "Investors have increasingly started processing the fact that the world’s central bankers are completely focused on debasing their currencies."

He said that "if investors’ confidence in central bankers’ judgment continues to weaken, the effect on gold could be very powerful. We believe the March quarter’s price action could represent something closer to the beginning of such a move than to the end."

What makes Singer's outlook especially notable is that it thankfully disagrees with the view from Goldman Sachs which as we reported last night, was stopped out of its short gold position with a 4.5% loss, and while forecasting modestly higher prices in 3, 6 and 12 months (it now sees gold at $1,100 instead of $1,000) still expects weaker gold prices over the next 12 months. Which considering Goldman's absolutely abysmal predictive track record is great news for gold bulls.

Bloomberg adds that in addition to expressing his gold view through options, Singer is backing a new venture focused on royalties, streaming, and other forms of investments in the mining industry that will be led by Shaun Usmar of Barrick Gold Corp.

And while Goldman cotninues to bash gold (which has once again jumped this morning right on schedule), some unexpected support to Singer's view came from none other than JPMorgan's Private Bank whose Solita Marcelli told CNBC that "we're recommending our clients to position for a new and very long bull market for gold." After seeing three back-to-back years of losses, the precious metal has rallied 20 percent in 2016. And that's just the start of the next leg higher, according to Marcelli. "[We think] $1,400 is very much in the cards this year."

As CNBC adds, the firm's global head of fixed income, currencies and commodities reasoned that, with so many negative interest rate policies around the world, gold will continue to be bought as an alternative currency. And, with expectations that investors will seek to hedge against the resulting volatility, Marcelli believes that gold will remain attractive in a world where bonds and U.S. rates may cease to be the main risk-off asset.

"Central Banks may consider diversifying their reserves [as they anticipate] negative rates on existing holdings," said Marcelli, when discussing the commodity as safe-haven trade. "Gold is a great portfolio hedge in an environment where the world government bonds are yielding at historically low levels."

While Marcelli admits the move will come slowly, she remains convinced that the commodity will continue to grind higher — with that key $1,400 level being the first line in the sand.

"Gold is looking more and more attractive every single day," concluded Marcelli. "As a nonyielding asset, it has a minimal storage cost, so when you compare it to negative-yielding assets, it actually has a positive carry."

It is refreshing to see that in a world in which over $7 trillion in bonds have a negative yield, someone has done the math. It is less refreshing that gold is once again so prominently featured in the official narrative, because if cash has recently become a target in a global NIRP world, that means that gold, whose wealth preservation qualities are vastly greater, will surely undergo an Executive Order 6102 redux in the coming years as governments around the globe seek to eliminate access to hard assets.

Source: Paul Singer: "Gold Rally Just Starting" as JPM Predicts a New Gold Bull Market - ZeroHedge

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