Archive For: April 2016

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North Carolina And The Separation Of Bathroom And State

The saga of the so-called Charlotte bathroom ordinance — and the state of North Carolina’s response to it — has taken on a life of its own. At the national level leftists are accusing North Carolina of bigotry while, in the name of tolerance, a growing list of performers and businesses are boycotting the state. Unfortunately, what has gotten lost in all the rhetoric surrounding this issue is the truth about both the original Charlotte law and the state’s response to it.

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The Slowdown Is Consumer-Driven

Without the assistance of an extra day as in February, durable and capital goods orders and shipments returned to the usual contraction. As is typical for this part of the slowdown, these are not huge declines but merely the continuation of contraction now stretching into a second year. Durable goods orders (ex transportation) were in...

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People Are Not As Stupid As Wall Street Economists Think-------The US Economy Actually Stinks

Economists will not remove themselves from seeing the economy as it “should be” rather than take it for what it is (and what that actually means). They have latched their narrative to the idea that it is you who has the perception problem no matter how isolated the “recovery” becomes. There never was much indication...

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The Crude Oil Price Recovery Is Over-----So Take The Money And Run

“Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. Please send any comments or questions directly to me via...

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Why The BLS Jobs Numbers Don't Add Up

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to point to the monthly employment reports as proof of the ongoing economic recovery. Even...

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Housing's Pseudo Recovery

There has always been something off about the housing rebound from the depths of the crash. It was, of course, aided in good part by various QE’s that had the effect of skewing marginal benefits of the housing recovery to “investors” and especially institutional investors with the best, cheapest access to credit. From a cycle...

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Chart Of The Day: Core Capital Goods Orders Down 2.4% Y/Y, 14th Straight Decline

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Another Gary Cooper Rebound-----It Isn't On The Level

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Why The Japanese Yen Will Collapse In The Next 12 Months, According To Goldman Sachs

Forget the G-20 agreement on no "competitive devaluations" - the full court press on the Bank of Japan to engage in the next round of aggressive currency devaluation is on, just three months after Kuroda unveiled Japan's first negative interest rate.

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Chinese Dragon: Breathing Credit Fumes and Posting GDP That Doesn't Compute

Economic forecasting, no matter how complex the underlying model may be, is essentially about extrapolating historical trends. We showed last week how economic models completely fail to pick up on structural shifts using Japan as an example. On the other hand, if an economy doesn’t really change much, as in the case of Australia over the last thirty years, model “forecast” are generally quite accurate. However, spending millions of dollars to do the job of a ruler doesn’t seem like wise resource allocation to us. That said there’s obviously a very limited market for model based GDP forecast and most of them are not exchanged among pure market based players, but rather between governmental funded agencies. True, Wall Street spews out their sell-side GDP propaganda on a regular basis, but claiming international banking is anything akin to a free market is absurd. GDP forecasting is something only wasteful organizations do and that should tell you all you need to know about these exercises in futility.

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