Economists really think the world is getting better rather than falling off again. It doesn’t matter how many times they think it, say it, print it, it never happens. They mean “normal” in the small “e” economic sense, and thus will be surprised as well as sorely disappointed by exactly what the oil market is saying on the topic. An oil crash is never a good thing. A 40% decline in oil prices spread out over a two-year period would be a huge boon to consumers; in two months, it’s nothing other than panicky liquidation which points to the same familiar if undesirable direction.
