Commercial & Industrial Loans Are In The Danger Zone

One way of determining when the C&I loan cycle (and, therefore, the overall economic cycle) is nearing its end is by charting total outstanding commercial and industrial loans as a percentage of GDP. When C&I loans are at 10% of GDP or higher (the “Danger Zone”), that is typically a sign that the cycle is long in the tooth and about to tip over into a recession. According to the chart below, recessions occurred shortly after C&I loans peaked within the “Danger Zone.” C&I loans are currently in that zone, which I see as further confirmation that we are in a Fed-driven economic bubble that will end badly.


David Stockman's Contra Corner is the only place where mainstream delusions and cant about the Warfare State, the Bailout State, Bubble Finance and Beltway Banditry are ripped, refuted and rebuked. Subscribe now to receive David Stockman’s latest posts by email each day as well as his model portfolio, Lee Adler’s Daily Data Dive and David’s personally curated insights and analysis from leading contrarian thinkers.