Rose Garden Bombast, Bluster And Baloney

During an impromptu Rose Garden barrage of self-serving bluster today, the Donald reminded once again that these are bizzaro times. What he correctly identified as “one big fat ugly bubble” when the S&P 500 was at 2112 during the campaign has now become, mirabile dictu, a ringing vindication of Trump-O-Nomics at 3012:

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Today's Contrarian Reads

The Neocon’s Have Turned The Straits Of Hormuz Into A Dangerous Tinderbox

For the next 60 days, the 90-mile length of waterway known as the Strait of Hormuz will be the most dangerous place on Earth, with the prospects for an incident occurring which will trigger a regional conflict possessing global ramifications high. Following this 60-day period, the risks will only grow higher.         […]


What Was It All For? Vets Have Finally Turned on America’s Endless Wars

A major opinion poll’s results were released which demonstrated that fully two-thirds of post 9/11 veterans now think the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan “weren’t worth fighting.” That’s a remarkable, and distressing, statistic and one that should give America’s president, legislators, media, and people as a whole, serious pause.             […]


Pompeo’s Big Lie on Iran

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a whopper, one that might have even embarrassed Pinocchio. Expressing a desire to be invited to appear on Iranian television, Pompeo said that he would tell Iranians that “we care deeply about them, that we’re supportive of the Iranian people, that we understand that the revolutionary theocracy is not […]


Mind The RUT: The Stock Market Canary Has Keeled Over

A stock-market index of small caps is at its weakest versus the S&P 500 since the financial crisis, suggesting the market has a liquidity problem.               https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-stock-market-canary-has-keeled-over-2019-07-12?link=sfmw_tw      


Renewed Central Bank Easing Is Rooted In Desperation—And It Won’t End Well!

No, markets have been making new highs because both the Fed and the European Central Bank are desperate to extend the business cycle by any means necessary. But lowering rates is rooted in desperation, and investors may want to carefully consider history and context.             https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/11/perspectives/fed-powell-interest-rates-recession/index.html  


Bubble Topping: No One Wants to Pay Budweiser’s $10 Billion Bar Tab

The world’s largest brewer couldn’t convince investors to take a gulp of its Asian unit. It will struggle to avoid a hangover.             https://www.wsj.com/articles/asian-ipo-flop-gives-budweiser-brewer-a-hangover-11563189952?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1      


China’s Growth Slides to Weakest Pace in Almost Three Decades

China’s economy slowed to the weakest pace since the early 1990s amid the ongoing trade standoff with the U.S., while monthly indicators provided signs that a stabilization is emerging. Gross domestic product rose 6.2.% in the April-June period from a year earlier….           https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-15/china-s-economy-slows-further-in-2nd-quarter-amid-trade-standoff


TheEmpire Rebuked: Turkey Disobeys The Great White Father In Washington

Turkey has just called Donald Trump’s bluff by going ahead with the purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles. The outrage in Washington is volcanic. Trump is vowing to rain fire and brimstone sanctions down on the disobedient Turks.             https://ericmargolis.com/2019/07/turkey-calls-trumps-bluff/


Breakout At 3,000? Why It’s Not Gonna Happen

History is clear on this one. If this is the beginning of a full-blown rate-cutting cycle by the Fed in an attempt to ward off a recession à la 1990, 2001 or 2008, stocks typically don’t do well after the first cut. On the other hand, if the cut is not associated with a further […]


Japan’s Old Age Colony: A Demographic/Fiscal Death Trap

Japan is ageing fast. Its dependency ratio, defined as the ratio of the population aged 65 and above to the population aged 20-64, was 48% in 2015. It is predicted to rise to 80% by the early 2050s and to stay at around 80% during the second half of the century……Expenditures for age-related social insurance […]