In recent days, the combination of extreme valuations and unfavorable market internals has been joined by acute dispersion in daily trading data that often occurs within a few days of pre-collapse peaks in the market. My opinion is that the music has already quietly faded out like the end of a pop song, in a wholly uneventful way, and that even a surprise push to further highs would be marginal. Still, as a practical matter, there’s no need for opinions or forecasts about future market behavior – it’s enough to align ourselves with prevailing conditions, and to change our stance as observable conditions change.
