We got the answer today when in a note, what else, warning what comes next, Edwards writes that whereas "a trade war and competitive currency devaluation was always going to be the end game in our Ice Age thesis as a global deflationary bust destroyed wealth, profits and jobs" and it now looks that this endgame "might be arriving sooner than we had anticipated."
The reason: central banks. The catalyst: Donald Trump. Making matters worse, everyone knows that it is Germany's FX subsidy courtesy of the EUR - which replaced the far stronger Deutsche Mark - that makes Berlin one of the biggest currency riggers in the world. In fact, "a Chinese official commented a few years back that Germany, not China, was actually the world's biggest currency manipulator - in tying its currency to far weaker economies, the real DM is massively undervalued."