Yet, these bets – that are “almost always wrong” about the Fed’s rate decisions – are now being incessantly cited to show that the Fed will cut its target range for the federal funds rate. From 2001 to 2004, federal funds futures projected that the Fed would hike rates. But the Fed kept cutting rates. Then, when the Fed finally started hiking rates, federal funds futures projected all the way along that it would stop hiking rates at any time now. Wrong, wrong, wrong. And so on.
