According to these estimates, this kind of big recession even though it is short-lived would leave US output by Q1 2021 significantly below what it had been in Q4 2019.
And that’s only where the possible problems start.
If we further assume (overlaying my own calculations on top of JP Morgan’s estimates) that the US economy would have grown at its current lackluster rate of around 2%, that would put baseline GDP at around $20.4 trillion in Q4 2022 – three full years from Q4 2019.
