Why The Leading Economic Indicators Index Don't Lead Nothing

And one more thing. In the early 2000s, high frequency trading accounted for less than 10% of stock trading volumes. According to a recent JP Morgan report, “fundamental discretionary traders” today account for about 10% of volume. The machines have literally taken over. What, pray tell, do these machines do? They key off of incoming information after it hits the wires, past tense. How on earth is the stock market supposed to discount anything if algorithms are designed to respond to data after it’s released? (That one was rhetorical.)


Rather than look over the horizon, the stock market has lost its predictive powers. Approach it like the reactionary mechanism it’s become and walk away with a better appreciation of why savvy investors discount the LEI.




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