The Latest

A Key Technical Indicator Just Rang The Bell On The Cyclical Bull Market

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While the primary topic of Albert Edwards’ most recent note is the question how long China can sustain its FX intervention before tapping out and letting the hedge funds win with their short Yuan bets once total reserves drop below the critical redline of $2.7 trillion (the answer incidentally is between 5 months and 10 months assuming monthly reserve burn rates of $130BN to $60BN), we will skip that part as we have discussed it extensively in the past, and instead will fast forward to some chart porn by the SocGenarian.

Its All One Trade! Wednesday’s Mayhem Shows 4 Asset Classes Tightly Intertwined

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Wednesday was “a complete and utter mess” in markets, according to Bespoke Investment Group. What were some of the wild moves? Oil rallied on what at first blush would seem to be price-negative news (another massive build in inventories), with front-month West Texas Intermediate futures contracts spiking 10 percent. The U.S. dollar suffered its worst day in seven years, while the S&P 500 had two intraday swings of more than 2 percent.

C-suite Lemmings Heading For The Cliff—-Still Pursuing Massive Share Buybacks

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In the midst of a gloomy earnings season, the share buyback machine has remained in overdrive, and some experts are cautioning it will all end badly. Companies, even those that are missing profit and sales estimates and cutting outlooks, or restructuring and cutting jobs, are still announcing buybacks. Coming after a long period of intensive spending on shareholder returns, the news is bad for investors hoping to see a return to growth.

Citi: ‘We Should All Fear Oilmageddon’

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Markets are currently in a well-oiled “death spiral,” according to Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Jonathan Stubbs. “It appears that four inter-linked phenomena are driving a negative feedback loop in the global economy and across financial markets,” the analysts write, citing the resilient U.S. dollar, lower commodities prices, weaker trade and capital flows, and declining emerging market growth.

The Bear Is Mauling Japan’s Money Printing Bubble

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Japanese stock investors trying to escape from bear territory may want to prepare for a long and painful road back. Since the Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled more than 20 percent from a peak last month, Japanese equities have made several attempts at rallies, only to falter as the market gets swept along in a global selloff spurred by tumbling oil prices. Even optimism over central bank stimulus — a frequent rescuer of stocks during the bull market — has failed to spark a sustained rally.

What The Next Recession Might Look Like—-A Deep Dive Into The Key Issues

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Stocks and corporate bonds haven’t been doing so well lately, while the market-implied probability of four Fed rate hikes by the end of this year — the median expectation of policymakers as of December — has plunged below 1 per cent (according to Bloomberg’s WIRP function, anyway). Reasonable people are nowstarting to wonder whether another downturn is imminent.

Meet The Bankster Bag Lady of Wall Street—-Hillary’s Gotten $21.4 Million So Far

Hillary Clinton has struggled to effectively answer questions about her paid speeches on Wall Street and all the support she receives from big banks. During a previous debate, she invoked the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, to argue she was just doing her job as a senator for New York. Last night, during a New Hampshire town hall broadcast on CNN, Anderson Cooper asked the Democratic front-runner if she made “a bad error in judgment” by accepting $675,000 from Goldman Sachs for three speeches. She didn’t hesitate to say no.

Contra Club

A Key Technical Indicator Just Rang The Bell On The Cyclical Bull Market

20160205_SPX1_0

While the primary topic of Albert Edwards’ most recent note is the question how long China can sustain its FX intervention before tapping out and letting the hedge funds win with their short Yuan bets once total reserves drop below the critical redline of $2.7 trillion (the answer incidentally is between 5 months and 10 months assuming monthly reserve burn rates of $130BN to $60BN), we will skip that part as we have discussed it extensively in the past, and instead will fast forward to some chart porn by the SocGenarian.

Beijing Agit-Prop Against Yuan Speculators Getting Desperate/Ridiculous

If there’s one thing China hates, it’s a nefarious “manipulator” spreading innuendo, and fear in an already nervous market. When these evildoers are Chinese citizens, the problem is easily solved. Beijing simply arrests them and beats a confession out them or else simply locks them away in the bowels of the Politburo for the remainder of their days. This is what we saw late last summer when Xi moved to crackdown on what the government claimed were multiple bad actors creating volatility and exacerbating the stock market rout.

Rand Paul—–A Post-Mortem

We are being treated to many – all too many – prognoses of Rand Paul’s presidential campaign and its untimely demise: Bonnie Kristian over at Rare.us blames the rise of ISIS, the latest foreign bogeyman to scare our laptop bombardiers into hiding under their beds: Nick Gillespie blames Donald Trump, the all-purpose piñata of the […]

The post Rand Paul in Retrospect appeared first on Antiwar.com Original.

Productivity Bust Stinks Up Phony BLS Jobs Surge

With the BLS’s release of Q4 productivity figures, we get to check the BLS’s estimates just in time for tomorrow’s increasingly irrelevant payroll report. That much has become thoroughly apparent especially since the middle of last year as the Establishment Survey and unemployment rate only diverge with the overall breadth of economic indications. With GDP…

Contra News & Views

Its All One Trade! Wednesday’s Mayhem Shows 4 Asset Classes Tightly Intertwined

-1x-1 (7)

Wednesday was “a complete and utter mess” in markets, according to Bespoke Investment Group. What were some of the wild moves? Oil rallied on what at first blush would seem to be price-negative news (another massive build in inventories), with front-month West Texas Intermediate futures contracts spiking 10 percent. The U.S. dollar suffered its worst day in seven years, while the S&P 500 had two intraday swings of more than 2 percent.

C-suite Lemmings Heading For The Cliff—-Still Pursuing Massive Share Buybacks

MW-EE820_GPROPN_20160204123102_NS

In the midst of a gloomy earnings season, the share buyback machine has remained in overdrive, and some experts are cautioning it will all end badly. Companies, even those that are missing profit and sales estimates and cutting outlooks, or restructuring and cutting jobs, are still announcing buybacks. Coming after a long period of intensive spending on shareholder returns, the news is bad for investors hoping to see a return to growth.