The Latest

The Fed’s Massive QE Failed To Revive Housing “Demand”: Home Prices Now Heading Down, Again

Bottom line: There was no “end-user” housing demand “recovery”. Rather, a speculator-driven “house price” super-inflation, which is abnormal and unsustainable in the absence of underlying strong demand driven by end-user wage or credit expansion…..Stimulus and lower rates are not doing the trick any longer; like in 2006, the simplest path to increased demand is through lower prices, which will be the theme in 2015.

Contra Club

The Fed’s Massive QE Failed To Revive Housing “Demand”: Home Prices Now Heading Down, Again

Bottom line: There was no “end-user” housing demand “recovery”. Rather, a speculator-driven “house price” super-inflation, which is abnormal and unsustainable in the absence of underlying strong demand driven by end-user wage or credit expansion…..Stimulus and lower rates are not doing the trick any longer; like in 2006, the simplest path to increased demand is through lower prices, which will be the theme in 2015.

Abenomics On The Ropes: Nothing Good On The Trade Front And Still More Excuses On “Recovery” Timetable

Untitled

Japan has faded from the front page, but the economic disaster continues to bother. The Bank of Japan has been forced back from its first target “against” the “deflationary mindset” that launched QQE back in April 2013. The goal then was not to achieve 2% “inflation”, but rather a stable and sustained 2% rate. Needless…

Fear And Dread Of Deflation—-The Keynesian Big Lie At Work

The fear of deflation has become the cornerstone of Keynesian economic thought. A lack of inflation has been used to explain periods of economic weakness from the Great Depression of the 1930’s, to the Great Recession 2008-2009. And now, that philosophy has been adopted as gospel by those that control the Federal Reserve and virtually every central bank on the planet…… In reality deflation is cathartic, and a necessary condition to heal the economy.

Boom, Bust, Lies and Claptrap!

  Embracing Risk Dow up big time on Thursday – 259 points, or 1.5% Gold up too – to over $1,300 an ounce. This year is going to be a hoot. Boom, bust, lies and claptrap – we’re going to have it all! What accounted for Thursday’s big bullish surge? From Bloomberg:   “The MSCI […]

SYRIZA and Beyond – Political Volatility Storms The European Project

Greek-election-result

Meanwhile, the political risk posed by parties like Syriza, Podemos, the Front National and others has been completely ignored by investors so far. Only the currency markets and lately also the gold market seem to be expressing a modicum of concern over central bank policies and political developments, but this is widely viewed as an intended outcome. The probability that the happy consensus will receive an unwelcome jolt seems currently higher than at any time since 2011……..

Memo To Neocon “Blowback” Deniers: Terrorists Hate Our Bombs & Drones, Not Our Freedoms

In the midst of his polemic against Ron Paul and the concept of “blowback” as the progenitor of Islamist terrorism, Kevin D. Williamson, writing in National Review Online, avers I’m “an intelligent man” – but after reading his jeremiad, I’m not sure I can return the compliment. He urges his readers to consider my “cracked […]

Hilsenrath Omen: Euro Trashing And 1.4 Trillion Bonds trading At Negative Yields

Untitled

According to the Wall Street Journal’s Jon Hilsenrath, “Euro’s Big Drop Puts U.S. Economy, Federal Reserve to the Test.” The European Central Bank’s launch of an aggressive program this week to buy more than €1 trillion in bonds poses important tests for the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve. Europe’s new program of money printing—and […]

Contra News & Views

Abenomics On The Ropes: Nothing Good On The Trade Front And Still More Excuses On “Recovery” Timetable

Untitled

Japan has faded from the front page, but the economic disaster continues to bother. The Bank of Japan has been forced back from its first target “against” the “deflationary mindset” that launched QQE back in April 2013. The goal then was not to achieve 2% “inflation”, but rather a stable and sustained 2% rate. Needless…

Is Big Business Whining About The “Strong” Dollar—-Read Secretary Lew’s Lips

Untitled

There hasn’t been much of Treasury Secretary Jack Lew around the mainstream newsfeed in a long time, maybe even going back to his confirmation. However, he caused a lit bit of wrinkle by proclaiming his love for a “strong dollar” while placing it within the context of perhaps ECB criticism. “The strong dollar, as all…

Restructuring Advisors Licking Their Chops: Oil Drillers Going To Die In Q2

The second quarter is going to be devastating for the service companies,” Young said in a telephone interview from Houston. “There are certainly companies that are going to die.”……Oilfield-service providers are facing a “double-whammy,” he said. Even as oil companies are demanding 20 percent to 30 percent price reductions, they’re also extending wait times before paying their bills, enlarging cash-flow gaps for the drilling and equipment firms, he said.