Fiscal Sundown In America, Part 1

The Senate Finance Committee tax bill is not supply side and it’s not even a tax cut; it’s a gimmick-ridden policy mongrel that smells to high heaven of political desperation and cynicism. Contrary to the Donald’s delusional promise that the American people will get some tax cut sugar plums for Christmas, we are reasonably confident that this misbegotten exercise in […]

Today's Contrarian Reads

November 20: Daily Contrarian Reads

Profits Alert—You Have Been Warned Investors aren’t paying attention. There is an important picture that is currently developing which, if it continues, will impact earnings and ultimately the stock market. Let’s take a look at some interesting economic numbers out this past week….When companies have higher input costs in their production they have two choices: 1) […]

November 17: Daily Contrarian Reads

More Risky Than Ever The bullish cabal is taking an incredible leap of faith that the Fed’s tightening cycle is going to be without hiccup and essentially have been brainwashed by not just the Fed but by the actions of all central banks in believing that every slip-up will be fully rectified. The central banks […]

November 16: Daily Contrarian Reads

Wall Street Dirty Secret: The Only Net Buyer of Stock Since 2008 Has Been Corporate Buybacks Ever since 2012 (see “How The Fed’s Visible Hand Is Forcing Corporate Cash Mismanagement“)  we have warned that as a result of the Fed’s flawed monetary policy and record low rates, corporations have been incentivized not to invest in growth […]

November 15: Daily Contrarian Reads

It May Look Like 1995, But It’s Far More Like 1999 The market is not the economy, and the economy is not the market (whenever I type that phrase out it comes into my head in Joe Calhoun’s voice), but fundamental analysis does matter for each of these markets. The probability that things work out like 1994/95 are slim given […]

Chart of the Day: How Detroit Moves The Metal

November 14: Daily Contrarian Reads

Global Money On The Move—Last Week’s Big Reversals …..But suddenly, right when everything looked so wonderful, there are indication of “Money” on the Move. And the issues appear to go beyond delays in implementing U.S. corporate tax cuts. The S&P500 declined only 0.2%, ending eight consecutive weekly gains. But the more dramatic moves were elsewhere. […]

November 13: Daily Contrarian Reads

Jerome Powell—-A Monetary Dracula Indeed, it was an honest mistake. For Powell, like Dracula, is a certified vampire. He likes low interest rates and easy credit.  In other words, he likes to bleed wage earners, savers, and fixed income retirees.  Moreover, he’s coming to get you. If you didn’t know, Powell’s been employed by the Federal Reserve […]

November 10: Daily Contrarian Reads

Real Motive Behind Saudi Purge Emerges: $800 Billion In Confiscated Assets ……..Then an article overnight from the WSJ confirmed that fundamentally, the purge may be nothing more than a forced extortion scheme, as the Saudi government – already suffering from soaring budget deficits, sliding oil revenues and plunging reserves – was “aiming to confiscate cash […]

November 9: Daily Contrarian Reads

Curb Your Enthusiasm! The Bear Cave has become a lonely place; like the dodo bird, bears are an endangered species. And so has the contrary, non-consensus view become endangered. Like Larry David, I am candid and can be neurotic, but I am generally disposed to pursuing what I perceive to be the right investment course! […]

November 8: Daily Contrarian Reads

The Broadest Episode Of Extreme Overvaluation In History Based on the consensus of the most historically-reliable market valuation measures we identify, the U.S. equity market is now at the most offensive level of overvaluation in history, exceeding even the levels observed in 1929 and 2000. Because investors appear to have a speculative bit in their […]