If you don't believe financial markets are well and truly broken Monday's tepid response to the Greferendum should be dispositive. The house of cards known as the Eurozone is about to hit the wall, unleashing financial contagion and turmoil far and wide. So any investor or trader in their right mind should have been slamming Jim Cramer's triple sell button early and often.
For lack of doubt, consider what Merkel's Vice-Chancellor and leader of the German socialists had to say on Monday. Recall Herr Gabriel is purportedly the voice of the enlightened left and the politician hoping to soon relieve Angela Merkel of her job:
Sigmar Gabriel, the German vice-chancellor and economy minister, said there could be no question of writing off Greek debt because other countries that have had loans such as Ireland, Portugal and Spain would demand equal treatment.
'I really hope that the Greek government – if it wants to enter negotiations again – will accept that the other 18 member states of the euro can't just go along with an unconditional haircut,' he said.
'How could we then refuse it to other member states? And what would it mean for the eurozone if we'd do it? It would blow the eurozone apart, for sure.'
Oh, yes, he used the "conditional" word, meaning that if Greece signs up for a permanent regime of reform, austerity and depression its paymasters in Brussels and Berlin might be open to an accounting double shuffle. That is, to having Greece's crushing loans extended to 40 years from 25 years, its grace period on interest and principle repayments stretched beyond the current 2023 time frame and its interest rates pared to something less than 1.5%. On an NPV basis, this is supposed to be some big deal concession.
But who do these clowns think they are kidding? Some day all of this debt will have to be rolled over, and eventually the monetary mountebanks running the ECB and other central banks will be unable to prevent interest rates from normalizing.
So put an honest interest rate-----say 6% on a country that has been a chronic deadbeat for two centuries-------on its current $350 billion of fiscal debt and the pro forma interest computation rounds out to 10% of GDP. It is doubtful that even Art Laffer would claim Greece could grow out from under that kind of financial albatross.
So the real red line is very simple. Above all else, 61% of the Greek public voted for relief from the onerous debt that has been imposed upon them by the troika and faithless Greek politicians in Athens. If they don't get an outright haircut in excess of $100 billion, Greek democracy will remain permanently indentured to its troika paymasters.
Yet is there an iota of chance that the other 18 Eurozone nations plus the IMF will agree to a meaningful and honest "haircut" during the next 48 hours that Angela Merkel has allotted for reaching a new deal or a Grexit? Well, for starters, her iron-fisted finance minister has just averred that a discount on the EFSF debt is actually "prohibited" by the EU treaties.
End of discussion.
Then in the unanimous consent parade you have the Finns, who fell in line last time only by an 11th hour side deal. Said their finance minister:
“We’re not willing to reduce Greece’s debt burden,” said Mr. Stubb. “We did that already in 2011; we did that also in 2012.”
So do the boys and girls who play in the Wall Street, London and other assorted casinos really need to be struck upside the head with a 2X4?
Even Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, heretofore a dove on finding a compromise with Greece, and a sawdust-for-brains politician willing to kick any available can, did not see fit this time to lie just because things have gotten so serious. Instead of opening the door to a debt haircut, he merely dismissed the Greek referendum as an 'irrelevant circus'.
Nor was that the extent of the European Commission's doves dissing of the prospects for a Greek debt haircut:
Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission vice president responsible for the euro, said a write-down of Greece's £270 billion debt mountain was now 'off the table' after the referendum.
Next, throw into the mix prime minister Tsipras once again trolling around Putin-land for an alternative source of money; a German government which cannot even discuss a third bailout deal prior to a favorable resolution from a hostile Bundestag, which also happens to be on recess; and an open breach between Angela Merkel and Francois Holland on the core matter of a debt haircut and accommodation of Greece's demands for relief from the troika memorandum.
The latter shatters the very Franco-German alliance on which the entire rotten troika bailout regime has rested.
The Germans have an impolite term for what that adds up to---- einen shitschturm!
And it will be a doozy. What the referendum did was to force the troika con job out of the accounting shadows. The Greek people now fully understand that it was not they, but the European banks and bond funds which were bailed out by the troika.
And the taxpayers of Europe now understand that it is they who are on the hook, not the Greeks who can't and won't pay; and not the Brussels apparatchiks, who committed them to off-budget guarantees that they falsely assured would never come due.
For purposes of clarity, here is the updated due bill for the 18 Eurozone nations which must act with unanimous agreement in the next 48 hours. It now amounts to 341 billion euros and is reaching the comical state. These fools have simply strapped themselves to a financial time-bomb.
Yes, Germany is liable for 95 billion euros via bilateral loans, the EFSF and its share of the ECB advances to Greece. Then comes France with 72 billion euros of claims against its taxpayers and Italy with 63 billion euros of liabilities.
The latter happens to amount to 4% of Italy's GDP, which is still 10% smaller than it was in 2007. But when it comes to the debtors dystopia called Europe---who is counting? The Italian state already has public debts of 2.1 trillion euros (130% of GDP) and a government which has been absolutely paralyzed for years.
But here's the thing. When the Greek due bills come to its parliament, the anti-euro opposition parties, led by Beppe Grillo's radical Five Star Movement, will have a field day. They will ask, quite appropriately, how was it that the giant, insolvent wards of the French state, otherwise known as universal banks, were able to reduce their exposure to Greece from 78 billion euros in 2009 to only 2 billion euros at present by transferring the cost to, among others, Italian taxpayers!
Well, the reason why they were bailed out is quite obvious. They were insolvent if the Greek and other PIIGS debt had been actually marked to market----to say nothing of the hundreds of billion in exposure to dodgy EM debt that further bloated their sickly balance sheets.
Indeed, they are still insolvent. The largest of these behemoth zombies, BNP-Paribas, for example, has balance sheet assets of $2.6 trillion but tangible book equity of only 3.3% of that amount.
Stated differently, it is levered 31:1. And this is relative to $800 billion of loans and $1.5 trillion of bonds and other long-term illiquid investments that are exposed to every shaky economic precinct on the planet, ranging from the unrepayable bonds of the French and Italian states to the junk bonds of insolvent Chinese coal miners and shale patch service companies.
And this isn't the half of it. When the Eurozone nations descend into recrimination and harsh contention over the massive Greek due bill, the ECB will be left high and dry. The fact is that the $160 billion (147.7 billion euros) it has advanced to the utterly insolvent Greek banking system and Greek state is not just some harmless accounting entry.
The ECB will be paralyzed without a massive capital replenishment by the 18 states which will be left after the Grexit. Now then, which government will survive a vote for massive appropriations to recapitalize the ECB when its own bond yields are soaring because the plug has been pulled on Mario's printing press?
The upward surge of yields on the PIIGS debt issues, as shown below, is obviously just the pre-gamer.
Greece is contained? Even the Bernank couldn't have imagined that one.
To be sure, the bull case does have one thin reed of hope. Namely, that Tsipras will be so panicked by the crisis in the Greek banking system that he will go to Brussels and sign a blank check of renewed servitude in order to unlock additional ECB cash.
Let's see. Greece's intrepid prime minister threw Mr.Varoufakis under the bus in favor of whom? Why he was replaced by Euclid Tsakalotos, an Oxford-educated Marxist!
This presumably mis-educated ideologue is surely familiar with the concept of nationalization. If so, there will indeed by a "haircut" upon the Grexit event, but it won't be on the remaining Greek depositors.
Indeed, Draghi will soon be praying that the massive scalping heading toward the ECB will stop with its balance sheet.
In any event, the Dow is now threatening to breach its 200-day moving average. Even the gamblers will soon be slamming Cramer's sell, sell, sell button.